UEFA Euro 2008

Norsk | Norwegian Computing Center | The SAMBA group

During the UEFA Euro 2008 the Norwegian Computing Center (NR) will daily consider the chances of every team participating in the championship, based on a probability model. All calculations will be updated daily, and be available for the public here.

Computations

The probabilities are found by simulating ("playing" on a computer) all remaining matches numerous times. The remaining part of the tournament is "played" 5000 times. From these simulations, we calculate all the teams' chances to win the championship, to win their group, to reach the Second Round, etc. When the remaining matches are "played" we consider details like:

a) In the group play the order in the table are firstly given the number of points. If two or more teams are equal on points, their rankings are determined by the number of points, goal difference and number of goals scored in the matches among the teams in qestion. If some teams still have equal ranks, their rankings are determined by goal difference and number of goals scored in all the group matches, thereafter by the point coefficients from the qualifying competitions for the two last championships, fair play conduct and finally by drawing lots.

b) Matches in the second round cannot end as a draw. If the result stands as a draw after reaching ordinary time, extra time of two periods of 15 minutes shall be played. If the match still is a draw, penalties will be taken to determine the winner.

The result of a match will depend on the strength of the two contesting countries, but there will also be an element of chance. Before the tournament starts, expert opinions from Norwegian football experts (Torgeir Bjarmann, Daniel Fredheim Holm, Solveig Gulbrandsen, Eli Landsem, Kjetil Rekdal og Arne Scheie) and sports journalists in Aftenposten give the basis for the strength of each team. As the matches actually are played, the strength is updated for every team. Consequently, the strength will more and more be given by the matches actually played, and gradually less by the expert opinions given in advance.

Organisation of the pages

The web-pages include:
- The main page containing all countries' overall chances in the tournament.
- One page for the second round.
- One page for each group.
- One page describing the method use (including the calculation of the strength of each country).

The Norwegian Computing Center

The Norwegian Computing Center has a strong position as a research institute within statistical-mathematical modelling and computer science. The 75 employees of the institute work within applied research, on a contract basis, for industry and authorities nationally and internationally. In the Department of Image Analysis and Pattern Recognition (SAMBA), we are 30 researchers. Together with the Department of Statistical Analysis of Natural Resource Data (SAND) we constitute one of Europe's largest and most competent groups of researchers in the field of applied statistics and image analysis.

Responsible for web-page: Magne Aldrin

The calculations are updated: June 26, 2008 23:44

Who wins?

Winner chances, all countries

Probability for 1.-2. position and for reaching finals in second round

Country	1.pos	2.pos	Final	Semi-final	Quarter-final
Spain	56.4%	43.6%	100%	100%	100%
Germany	43.6%	56.4%	100%	100%	100%
Turkey	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Russia	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Portugal	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Croatia	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Italy	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Netherlands	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Czech-Republic	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Switzerland	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Austria	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Poland	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
France	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Romania	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Greece	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Sweden	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%